Bayesian updating of soil-water character curve parameters based on the monitor data of a large-scale landslide model experiment

Abstract

It is important to determine the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC) for analyzing landslide seepage under varying hydrodynamic conditions. However, the SWCC exhibits high uncertainty due to the variability inherent in soil. To this end, a Bayesian updating framework based on the experimental data was developed to investigate the uncertainty of the SWCC parameters in this study. The objectives of this research were to quantify the uncertainty embedded within the SWCC and determine the critical factors affecting an unsaturated soil landslide under hydrodynamic conditions. For this purpose, a large-scale landslide experiment was conducted, and the monitored water content data were collected. Steady-state seepage analysis was carried out using the finite element method (FEM) to simulate the slope behavior during water level change. In the proposed framework, the parameters of the SWCC model were treated as random variables and parameter uncertainties were evaluated using the Bayesian approach based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Observed data from large-scale landslide experiments were used to calculate the posterior information of SWCC parameters. Then, 95% confidence intervals for the model parameters of the SWCC were derived. The results show that the Bayesian updating method is feasible for the monitoring of data of large-scale landslide model experiments. The establishment of an artificial neural network (ANN) surrogate model in the Bayesian updating process can greatly improve the efficiency of Bayesian model updating.