Testing a forecasting system for the measuring sites Hannover-Herrenhausen and Ruthe based on neural networks

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Steding, Alexander: Testing a forecasting system for the measuring sites Hannover-Herrenhausen and Ruthe based on neural networks.Hannover : Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität, Bachelor Thesis, 2024, 47 S. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15488/17360

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Short term forecasts of meteorological parameters play an important role in many societal processes. Until recently, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models (SARIMA) have been used to make forecasts on meteorological time series data. This thesis deploys and evaluates three different neural network forecasting systems, based on long short term memory (LSTM) networks. One univariate LSTM model, one multivariate LSTM model that receives all input parameters, and one multivariate LSTM model that only received correlating inputs. Each forecasting system uses twelve different LSTM submodels to forecast the meteorological parameters at the measuring site, Hannover-Herrenhausen. Theforecasting systems are compared with the SARIMA approach and a simple seasonal naive as a baseline model. For the comparison, the root mean squared error and mean absolute scaled error were computed. The neural network based forecasting systems outperform the SARIMA model in every parameter, except precipitation. Using only correlating inputs improved just selected parameter performance. Notably, the optimal window size was analysed to be 24 hours for the networks. The test on a second dataset from the measuring site in Ruthe revealed that the neural forecasting systems possess the ability to generalize on unknowndata.
License of this version: CC BY 3.0 DE
Document Type: BachelorThesis
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2024
Appears in Collections:Fakultät für Mathematik und Physik

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pos. country downloads
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1 image of flag of Germany Germany 13 56.52%
2 image of flag of Hungary Hungary 4 17.39%
3 image of flag of United States United States 2 8.70%
4 image of flag of United Kingdom United Kingdom 1 4.35%
5 image of flag of France France 1 4.35%
6 image of flag of Switzerland Switzerland 1 4.35%
7 image of flag of Canada Canada 1 4.35%

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