Extrapolating from experiments, confidently

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Khosrowi, D.: Extrapolating from experiments, confidently. In: European Journal for Philosophy of Science 13 (2023), Nr. 2, 18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13194-023-00520-1

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Sum total of downloads: 29




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Abstract: 
Extrapolating causal effects from experiments to novel populations is a common practice in evidence-based-policy, development economics and other social science areas. Drawing on experimental evidence of policy effectiveness, analysts aim to predict the effects of policies in new populations, which might differ importantly from experimental populations. Existing approaches made progress in articulating the sorts of similarities one needs to assume to enable such inferences. It is also recognized, however, that many of these assumptions will remain surrounded by significant uncertainty in practice. Unfortunately, the existing literature says little on how analysts may articulate and manage these uncertainties. This paper aims to make progress on these issues. First, it considers several existing ideas that bear on issues of uncertainty, elaborates the challenges they face, and extracts some useful rationales. Second, it outlines a novel approach, called the support graph approach, that builds on these rationales and allows analysts to articulate and manage uncertainty in extrapolation in a systematic and unified way.
License of this version: CC BY 4.0 Unported
Document Type: Article
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2023
Appears in Collections:Philosophische Fakultät

distribution of downloads over the selected time period:

downloads by country:

pos. country downloads
total perc.
1 image of flag of Germany Germany 16 55.17%
2 image of flag of United States United States 5 17.24%
3 image of flag of No geo information available No geo information available 2 6.90%
4 image of flag of Russian Federation Russian Federation 1 3.45%
5 image of flag of Italy Italy 1 3.45%
6 image of flag of Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Islamic Republic of 1 3.45%
7 image of flag of Israel Israel 1 3.45%
8 image of flag of Indonesia Indonesia 1 3.45%
9 image of flag of Europe Europe 1 3.45%

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