Bayesian Robust Multivariate Time Series Analysis in Nonlinear Models with Autoregressive and t-Distributed Errors

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Dorndorf, A.; Kargoll, B.; Paffenholz, J.-A.; Alkhatib, H.: Bayesian Robust Multivariate Time Series Analysis in Nonlinear Models with Autoregressive and t-Distributed Errors. In: Engineering Proceedings 5 (2021), Nr. 1, 20. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2021005020

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Many geodetic measurement data can be modelled as a multivariate time series consisting of a deterministic (“functional”) model describing the trend, and a stochastic model of the correlated noise. These data are also often affected by outliers and their stochastic properties can vary significantly. The functional model of the time series is usually nonlinear regarding the trend parameters. To deal with these characteristics, a time series model, which can generally be explained as the additive combination of a multivariate, nonlinear regression model with multiple univariate, covariance-stationary autoregressive (AR) processes the white noise components of which obey independent, scaled t-distributions, was proposed by the authors in previous research papers. In this paper, we extend the aforementioned model to include prior knowledge regarding various model parameters, the information about which is often available in practical situations. We develop an algorithm based on Bayesian inference that provides a robust and reliable estimation of the functional parameters, the coefficients of the AR process and the parameters of the underlying t-distribution. We approximate the resulting posterior density using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques consisting of a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm.
License of this version: CC BY 4.0 Unported
Document Type: Article
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2021
Appears in Collections:Fakultät für Bauingenieurwesen und Geodäsie

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1 image of flag of United States United States 7 30.43%
2 image of flag of Indonesia Indonesia 6 26.09%
3 image of flag of Germany Germany 4 17.39%
4 image of flag of South Africa South Africa 2 8.70%
5 image of flag of Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Islamic Republic of 2 8.70%
6 image of flag of Korea, Republic of Korea, Republic of 1 4.35%
7 image of flag of Israel Israel 1 4.35%

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